Opinion: Obama Has Upper Hand in 2012 Presidential Election

Lin discusses his views on the election of 2012 and predicts that it will be interesting.

Written by JUSTIN LIN / Published May 4, 2012  

Many polls taken of the election of 2012 have Obama favored to win, some by a larger margin than others. One poll by Gallup has Mitt Romney winning by one point.

There is much to look for in this election.

One of the main factors is sure to be the economy. If the unemployment fails to improve, Obama could have a tougher time convincing the American people he is on the right track. If the unemployment rate continues to decline, Obama could potentially wrap up the election early on in the season.

The odds are stacked against Mitt Romney; not to the point that it is overwhelming, but enough to be significant.

He came in unable to fully wrap up the nomination and faced a slew of challenges from different candidates: Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and most recently, Rick Santorum. Because the fight for the nomination has been so intensive, Mitt Romney’s image has been tarnished.

Expect Barack Obama’s campaign to swing much more heavily to the negative side. With an 8.2 percent unemployment rate, it may be difficult to use the same “Hope and Change” slogan that he brought on just four years ago.

What has been particularly effective for Barack Obama has been attacking the Republicans and their support of the Ryan plan. I do believe that as a president, he is finding it less effective to attack his predecessor, now knowing the difficulty of such a job.

Mitt Romney is sure to run negative campaign ads, as it worked well with him in the primaries. The biggest question is, however, will the economy improve?

If it does, the attack ads will be ineffective, and Obama may be able to campaign in a style similar to Reagan’s “Morning in America” campaign. In fact, Obama’s backdrop in his own speech in the Bagram air base in Afghanistan looked like Reagan’s in 1984.

Where will it turn out? Obama has the upper hand I think, but the game is far from over. Look for an interesting November.

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